Home values have peaked and begun to fall in every Melbourne SA3 region, with the declines tipped to continue into the new year.
New CoreLogic figures show the drops range from just 0.6 per cent in the Sunbury region through to a substantial 14.5 per cent in Stonnington East, with the city’s well-heeled suburbs generally falling the furthest.
CoreLogic research analyst Cameron Kusher said the property markets in every SA3 region in Victoria’s capital — which are equivalent to local government areas with populations between 30,000-130,000 people — had maxed out at different points over the past 18 months.
And each had since recorded falls, to varying degrees.
“This shows the declines in the market, although their still biggest at the top end, have become more broad,” Mr Kusher said.
“I wouldn’t say any of the regions have bottomed out — most will continue to see falls next year.”
The citywide market peaked in November last year and had declined by almost 6 per cent since.
As well as in Stonnington East, double-figure drops from peak were recorded in Boroondara (13 per cent), Whitehorse West (12.7 per cent), Bayside (11.8 per cent), and Manningham West (10.8 per cent).
Mr Kusher said the significant falls at the top of the Melbourne market were “being driven by the fact there’s not as much demand for that kind of housing”.
“People aspire to live in those affluent areas, but the reality is, once the market turns there’s less demand for those areas because credit is hard to come by,” he said.
On the flip side, first-home buyer heavy markets where the tightened lending criteria was having less of an impact had so far avoided dramatic falls, Mr Kusher said.
The regions yet to be hit too hard are Sunbury (dwelling values down 0.6 per cent), Maribyrnong (1.6 per cent), Darebin South (1.8 per cent), Wyndham (2.3 per cent) and Yarra (2.7 per cent).
Realestate.com.au chief economist Nerida Conisbee noted Melbourne was “holding up far better than Sydney”, where CoreLogic data shows the worst performing region (Pennant Hills-Epping) had shed 17.6 per cent from its peak.
Twenty-five Sydney SA3 regions had also notched double-digit falls compared to Melbourne’s five.
Real Estate Institute of Victoria senior vice president Leah Calnan said a price correction was inevitable following Melbourne’s recent boom.
“When we look back to 2016-17, some suburbs were seeing growth of 20 per cent per quarter. That was never going to be sustainable,” she said.
Melbourne SA3 regions experiencing the largest falls from their peak
Stonnington — East: median dwelling value down 14.5%
Whitehorse — West: 12.7%
Manningham — West: 10.8%
Whitehorse — East: 9.6%
Glen Eira: 9.4%
Stonnington — West: 7.5%
Melbourne regions experiencing the smallest falls from their peak
Sunbury: median dwelling value down 0.6%
Darebin South: 1.8%
Tullamarine — Broadmeadows: 2.9%
Casey — South: 3.2%
Macedon Ranges: 3.3%
Melbourne City: 3.5%
Source: CoreLogic, from the regions’ individual peaks to November 2018